2024 Q3 Partner Letter

“Everyone is entitled to be wrong about their opinions, but no one has the right to be wrong about their facts.” -Bernard Baruch. The Florida Land Boom of the 1920s stands as one of the most remarkable economic bubbles in U.S. history. In 1925, the Sunshine State became the epicenter of a speculative frenzy. Florida … Read more

2024 Q2 Partner Letter

“You have to know the past to understand the present.” -Carl Sagan. Between 1900 and 1914, Britain viewed Germany as the main threat to its empire. Germany’s leader, Kaiser Wilhelm II, pursued a policy of building a naval fleet to rival Britain’s. The Royal Navy was by far the most powerful fleet in the world … Read more

2024 Q1 Partner Letter

“You can’t predict. You can prepare.” -Howard Marks. Shepherd 2024 Q1 Meteorologist Edward Lorenz is best known for the “butterfly effect,” the idea that a slight disturbance, like the flapping of a butterfly’s wings, can provoke enormous consequences. As told in the book “Chaos,” in 1961, Dr. Lorenz ran weather simulations using a simple computer … Read more

2023 Q4 Partner Letter

“Every generation laughs at the old fashions but follows religiously the new.” -Thoreau. An American buttonwood tree once stood taller than any other structure on Wall Street. Two hundred and thirty-one years ago, on May 17, 1792, twenty-four merchants signed the Buttonwood Agreement under that tree, establishing the first iteration of the New York Stock … Read more